Robert Kagan is optimistic that Bush won’t “pull a Clinton” and leave the Iran problem to his successor. He believes Bush will give diplomacy, diplomacy almost guaranteed to fail, a fair shot and then take the remaining military option:
If this were Bush’s strategy, he would know very well that the diplomatic track is likely to fail. He would know that Iran is unlikely to give up its program and accept the kind of intrusive inspections necessary to verify any deal. He would also know that the international community, at the end of the day, will probably refuse to support serious punitive actions against Iran. Even the European allies, let alone Russia and China, will balk at any sanctions that really have a chance of hurting the Iranian leadership. The Europeans will try to carry out a kind of Zeno’s diplomacy, moving halfway toward decisive action, then another quarter of the way, then an eighth, then a sixteenth, and on and on, to avoid choosing between their two worst options: taking action against Iran, or visibly and embarrassingly retreating from taking action against Iran.The likely failure of diplomacy would not deter Bush from pursuing it, however. If and when it failed, he would be able to choose the military course, and no fair person could accuse him of not having tried to bring the world along to do what had to be done. At least he would know in his own mind that he had sincerely given diplomacy a chance. And when he ordered the strike on Iran, he would know that, whatever else could be said about him, he would not go down in history as the man who let the mullahs have the bomb.
It’s just a theory.
I hope that Robert Kagan’s theory pans out. Iran is going to be incredibly difficult to deal with if Ahmednejad is still in power after the Bush presidency.
Related
Wikipedia – Robert Kagan
Washington Post Op-Eds
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Bio
2 Responses
Readers are solely responsible for the comments they post. Comments do not necessarily reflect the opinion or approval of Blogs of War or John Little.
July 13th, 2006 at 9:19 pm
Israel Intensifies Attacks on Lebanon
While Hezbollah continues firing missiles into Israel from Lebanon, now numbering over one hundred, Israeli force have intensified their attacks against them on Thursday. Israel has imposed a naval blockade, bombed Beirut’s airport twice and sent rock…
July 18th, 2006 at 2:28 am
Remember, it was Ollie North who traitored our country and our soldiers by helping to arm Iran, and through word from the CIA, Iran has sold our own weapons to be used by insurgents on our own men. More people know the truth about North and Iran than anything else, including the the fact that many men and women soldiers would be alive today if Clinton had been in charge. If you don’t think the American soldier has been clipped behind the knees by Bush and Rummy and Draft-Dodger Cheney, you are not paying attention.
Believe what you will, but the facts are North and his irregulars and Rummy and his love for Sadam (I have the photos) got us into the pickle we’re in today. Also, if you read your history, Bush’s father turned tail and left the Gulf War in a mess and the people paid with their lives. That fact is well-documented.
We fought in Vietnam; we believed; we died and were maimed, but what is Vietnam today? Communist. Why does Bush and the rest of America play ball and trade with Communists while saying how bad things are with terrorists? Communists, fascists, terrorists are all in the same semantic pool. Terrorism is a technique, not a country. Timothy James McVeigh knew that.
The American soldier is the best soldier, but our government has too often betrayed him/her. When men and women come back, trust me, no one will give it a second or third thought about Iraq; they barely know anyting about it now; after one or two months, no one will remember if they gave it a thought. Thousands of U.S. children, the children of killed soldiers will give it plenty of thought for the rest of their lives and no amount of patriotic mumbo-jumbo will change or cure the damage done by an administration that sought revenge for a President-father-Bush, who failed to finish the job and git ‘er done.
PS: Where is Tommy Franks today? Off, high-tailed away from a war he should have stayed with, just as Patton did, just as Eisenhower did. Franks is off making big bucks and selling his wisdom, but the truth is, he lives under a big shadow of the men he left behind because he knew full well the going was going to get tough. Westmoreland stayed the entire time. Franks went soft, so did Gen. Richard Myers.
Let me ask you one question: When you get out of the war will you be able to come home and get a speaking engagement agent and make speeches about how great your career was for $45,000 per speech?