I can imagine a plan existing. Lots of war plans are developed but never executed. But I can’t imagine Israel following through with it. Matt Drudge is teasing a Sunday Times story on the issue:
Israel has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons, the SUNDAY TIMES of London is planning to report, British media sources tell DRUDGE… MORE…
A conventional attack would seem much more likely. I’m starting to think 2007 may be the year. But nuclear? That event would be so disruptive worldwide that I just can’t imagine it being used. I’m inclined to view this as both a warning for Iran and an attempt to scare Washington into taking more direct action on the issue.
Jay at Stop the ACLU has a great roundup and comments
No other information yet…but I will update as it comes in. I’m thinking this is going to be one of those times where the Drudge teaser headlines are more alarming than the actual story. Its probably a contingency plan for ‘just in case’ situations that has been leaked.
I’ll keep an eye on this but I don’t think there’s much to it.
Update:
The Times story is up:
The plans, disclosed to The Sunday Times last week, have been prompted in part by the Israeli intelligence service Mossad’s assessment that Iran is on the verge of producing enough enriched uranium to make nuclear weapons within two years.
Israeli military commanders believe conventional strikes may no longer be enough to annihilate increasingly well-defended enrichment facilities. Several have been built beneath at least 70ft of concrete and rock. However, the nuclear-tipped bunker-busters would be used only if a conventional attack was ruled out and if the United States declined to intervene, senior sources said.
Israeli and American officials have met several times to consider military action. Military analysts said the disclosure of the plans could be intended to put pressure on Tehran to halt enrichment, cajole America into action or soften up world opinion in advance of an Israeli attack.
Israel cannot “soften up” world opinion in advance of a nuclear strike and they know that. This story wouldn’t be leaked for that purpose. This is, as I said earlier, intended to focus Washington’s attention on Iran.
While I share Israel’s concern and desire for action this incident is a bit over the top. It won’t advance their agenda, impact our policy, or do them any favors in the public relations department. They’d be wise to dial it back just a bit.
Update:
A wave of denials, as expected, out of Israel:
The Israeli army declined to comment when asked by The Associated Press on Sunday whether the Israeli air force was training for an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities.
“I refuse to believe that anyone here would consider using nuclear weapons against Iran,” Reuven Pedatzur, a prominent defense analyst and columnist for the daily Haaretz, told the AP. “It is possible that this was a leak done on purpose, as deterrence, to say ‘someone better hold us back, before we do something crazy.’”
Ephraim Kam, a strategic expert at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies and a former senior army intelligence officer, also dismissed the report.
“No reliable source would ever speak about this, certainly not to the Sunday Times,” Kam said.
James Joyner: While eliminating Iran’s nuclear program would be a boon to humanity, I fear a military strike–let alone one with the added taboo of a nuclear first strike–would have catastrophic consequences. Given that any action by Israel would be viewed regionally as a proxy strike by the United States, whether or not it was done with tacit approval from the Bush administration, it would almost certainly create a ripple effect throughout the Arab world and lead to more terrorist strikes. Indeed, the repercussions would likely exceed those of successful Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons.
Jonah Goldberg: The U.S. military is constantly making ready for this or that possibility. And when such information is released, certain folks immediately read that as the U.S. military intends to do what it is in fact merely studying. I get the sense something similar is in the works in Israel, but it’s much less sexy to talk about it that way. Also, the Israelis themselves may want to be sending the signal that they’re deadly serious, which can only be done by acting that way.
Flopping Aces: Makes sense to me. Would you allow someone who daily threatens your existence to possess nuclear weapons? The Jews made a terrible mistake when they underestimated Hitler. They won’t make a similar mistake again.
Blue Crab Boulevard: My take on this? I strongly doubt that this is meant to do anything but make Iran nervous. And given Ahmadinejad’s fanaticism and complete willingness to bring on an apocalypse, I do not think it will accomplish any deterrence. You can only deter the other side when you are dealing with a sane government. I don’t think Ahmadinejad’s Iran fits that bill. What it could do is goad Ahmadinejad into an off-the-wall response.
Macsmind: So this rumor has been floating since last year, but the veracity of whether or not Israel would actually take the shot is without question. Israel simply cannot allow Iran to have any type of Nuclear Program – ever. The fact is that somebody has to put a stop to Iran’s build up and if we are losing our “will to win”, then it’s a good thing someone still has some cajones.
Hot Air: As usual, Drudge oversold it. They’re training for the mission as a contingency and the only nukes involved are bunker-busters with a one-kiloton yield, roughly the power of the Trade Center collapse, to be used at a single site. Still, the missiles-down-the-chute bombing scenario should please Star Wars fans.
The Reaction: I may be overly optimistic in my assessment of this situation, but it seems to me that the nuclear option just isn’t a likely option here. The aggressor in any nuclear confrontation, even one directed at a potential nuclear threat like Iran, would face significant and perhaps overwhelming worldwide condemnation. The story of Israel’s nuclear plan is sensational, to be sure, and it may get the attention it seeks, but that’s likely — hopefully — all it is.
3 Responses
Readers are solely responsible for the comments they post. Comments do not necessarily reflect the opinion or approval of Blogs of War or John Little.
January 6th, 2007 at 6:24 pm
Leak of Israel’s Plans to Nuke Iran Smells like BS…
Drudge Report is splashing the news that the Sunday Times of London plans on reporting that Israel is planning a nuclear strike against Iran to head off Iran’s nuclear ambitions. According to Drudge:
Israel has drawn up secret plans to destroy I…
January 7th, 2007 at 7:56 am
Israel Planning Nuclear Strike on Iran?…
Israel is planning to strike Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with bunker buster nukes, Uzi Mahnaimi and Sarah Baxter report in the Sunday Times of London. They cite “several Israeli military sources” who say two Israeli air force s…
January 17th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Let’s not forget how dangerous the Iraqi nuclear reactor would have posed had it gone on-line.
Let’s thank Israel for doing the world a favor.
Check out my web site for a commemorative lithogrpah marking the success of the mission.
http://www.birkartwork.com/