There’s no good news in the latest National Hurricane Center advisory:
At 800 PM AST…0000z…the eye of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 16.0 north…longitude 71.0 west or about 405 miles…650 km…east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 165 miles…265 km…south-southwest of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.
Dean is moving toward the west near 17 mph…28 km/hr…and a westward or west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track…the core of the hurricane will pass just south of the southern coast of Haiti tonight and will be near Jamaica on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph…240 km/hr…with higher gusts. Dean is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations,in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles…110 km…from the center…and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles…370 km. Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic has been experiencing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past several hours.
The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 920 mb…27.17 inches.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over Jamaica…with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches possible. Amounts of 4 to 6 inches are possible over southern Haiti with maximum totals of 10 inches possible. The remainder of the Dominican Republic…Haiti and eastern Cuba…could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain with maximum amounts up to 7 inches possible. Additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible over Puerto Rico…with isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 9 feet above normal tide levels…along with large and dangerous battering waves…is possible near the center of Dean in the Hurricane Warning area.
The latest water vapor loop is very impressive.
Richard May updates from Jamaica:
Okay ladies and gentlemen … it went from sunny, partly cloudy skies to pitch black in about 25 minutes this evening. As I sit here typing the first real gust of wind just blew threw my apartment complex in Kingston … pretty interesting for a storm that is still 12 hours away! There are NO CARS ON THE ROAD and we can hear no traffic so I am happy to report that most persons have decided to take this hurricane seriously. Last advisory was no surprise … we have been on the target list from day 1 …
The evening is a little chillier than one may have expected, but given the consistent wind this again is not a surprise. The wind is not a worry factor at this point … probably about 8 knots … but the gusts just now could easily have been at least 20 as it took a quite few leaves from the trees at the front of the apartment. As far as utlities go … or will go … the electricity is scheduled to go at 10am tomorrow (Sunday) as per the JPSCo on a radio interview this afternoon. NWC will naturally go shortly after the JPSCo as they need power to pump water. As for telecommunications … well lets see who is going to play chicken and who is going to be smart .. its C&W Vs Digicel in Hurricane Service Round 2 (ding ding)!
The ODPEM has advised the evacuation of all coastal and low-lying areas … I trust that everyone will be cooperative this time round! The fishermen thus far have actually heeded the warnings .. a good sign that the message has filtered far and wide … DEAN means business. Wind picking up again and this time there is a light drizzle as well … lets see how we fare! Keep us in your prayers. Paradise may well be paralyzed after tonight!
Bloggers in the Path of Dean:
Haiti | Cayman Islands | Jamaica | Dominican Republic
Weather Observations:
Jamaica: Montego Bay | Kingston
