The 4PM CST update from the National Hurricane Center doesn’t change things much but it does point to a better organized, and slowly strengthening, storm:
…EDOUARD GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED…TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACH THE COAST OF LOUISIANA…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PORT O’CONNOR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES…220 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 215 MILES…350 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECT TO OCCUR TONIGHT…AND THE CENTER OF EDOUARD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH EDOUARD HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET TODAY…IT IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COASTLINE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM FROM THE CENTER…AND WERE RECENTLY REPORTED NEAR COCODRIE LOUISIANA.
The lower pressure and organization are a bit troubling but this is not exactly rapid intensification. However, the wind field has doubled in size:
DATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING…WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW IN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS…BUT THE SYSTEM’S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVN’T CHANGED MUCH. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT. STRUCTURALLY…THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION…WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE…WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL…WITH THE SHIPS…LGEM…AND SUPERENSEMBLE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE THRESHOLD. IT’S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE.
I’ll be watching Edouard closely this evening and posting throughout the storm - if, or when, it makes it’s way through the Houston area.
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August 4th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
I have a baaaaaad feelin about this one. :(