Any hope that this would be a short-lived punitive strike by Russia seems to be fading quickly:
Russia issued an ultimatum to Georgian forces on Monday to surrender completely in and around the western pro-Russian separatist enclave of Abkhazia, in a sign that fighting could escalate on a second front in the west of Georgia.
The ultimatum called for Georgian forces to surrender in the Zugdidi district along the border of Abkhazia. A Georgian official close to the president, Giga Bokaria, said the ultimatum raised alarms that Russian troops would now push into Georgian territory in the west unchallenged by Georgian troops, which have been tied up in fighting further east near the other pro-Russian separatist enclave of South Ossetia.
The pivotal question in the conflict, which has involved heavy fighting since late last week, is now whether Russia — which has poured troops into both Abkhazia and South Ossetia — will push beyond these regions and further into Georgia.
Just how far is Russia going to push and, more importantly, is there a reason for them fall back? The West can’t afford to truly isolate Russia and it certainly won’t fight it, except by proxy, so where is the incentive? To make matters worse Putin and Russia are finding sympathy in the unlikeliest places:
His war against Georgia is part of this grand strategy. Putin cares no more about a few thousand South Ossetians than he does about Kosovo’s Serbs. Claims of pan-Slavic sympathy are pretexts designed to fan Russian great-power nationalism at home and to expand Russia’s power abroad.
Unfortunately, such tactics always seem to work. While Russian bombers attack Georgian ports and bases, Europeans and Americans, including very senior officials in the Bush administration, blame the West for pushing Russia too hard on too many issues.
It is true that many Russians were humiliated by the way the Cold War ended, and Putin has persuaded many to blame Boris Yeltsin and Russian democrats for this surrender to the West. The mood is reminiscent of Germany after World War I, when Germans complained about the “shameful Versailles diktat” imposed on a prostrate Germany by the victorious powers and about the corrupt politicians who stabbed the nation in the back.
Now, as then, these feelings are understandable. Now, as then, however, they are being manipulated to justify autocracy at home and to convince Western powers that accommodation — or to use the once-respectable term, appeasement — is the best policy.
Not the best policy but it certainly seems to be the frontrunner at the moment.
