It isn’t too late for Fred to be a factor but he needs a needs a serious, buzzworthy, surge to reset the race. That surge, if it’s to come, will be the result of his performance last night and his ability to dial in that tone that so resonated with the conservative base. We’ll know soon if Fred can be a factor:

“I don’t know of any better place to stand my ground and test my case than in South Carolina,” Thompson told a couple of hundred people at a pancake house in the northern part of the state as he began an 11-day bus tour.

He said the results in New Hampshire and in Michigan on Jan. 15 will factor into whether he stays in the race, but that South Carolina will be key.

Arizona Sen. John McCain won the Republican primary in New Hampshire.

“This is where we make our stand — this is where I have chosen to make my stand,” Thompson told a crowd at a barbecue restaurant. He later told reporters he needs to do well in South Carolina, which votes Jan. 19.

“There’s no question about it. It could prove at the end of the day that South Carolina is determinative as far as I’m concerned, but we’re not there yet,” he said.

Update 9:28 PM CST:: Internet probelms here. I have to bail out of the liveblogging. I’ll wrap up once I can get a decent connection.

Update 8:51 PM CST:: Ron Paul is going nuts again. You can tell the other candidates are really tired of this crackpot.

Update 8:44 PM CST:: Romney just said that Ron Paul should “stop reading Ahmadinejad’s press releases.” Best line so far.

Update 8:42 PM CST:: Rudy and McCain handled questions about the incident with Iran well. Ron Paul just had a total freakout meltdown - typical blame America stuff - the audience is laughing at him.

Update 8:35 PM CST:: Fred on the Iranians - “One more step and they would have been introduced to those virgins they’re looking forward to seeing.” Like Huckabee he followed with a more serious response.

Update 8:31 PM CST:: Huckabee threatened our enemies with a trip through the “gates of hell.” It was pretty entertaining but lacking a bit of sophistication. His second answer was a bit more thoughtful.

Update 8:29 PM CST:: Ron Paul on the GOP - “We finally got control of the government and we became big government people.” He’s right about that.

Update 8:26 PM CST:: Whoa Fred Thompson is kicking ass! Finally someone with some credibility addresses all of this Reagan legacy talk. He just stepped in and schooled everyone and drew the first applause of the night.

Update 8:22 PM CST:: Obligatory Reagan praise. Too bad they never seem to actually want govern like Reagan when they have the opportunity.

Update 8:19 PM CST:: Fred Thompson is talking about specific techniques for managing the economy. That sure confused everyone.

Update 8:17 PM CST:: Ron Paul is screaming “I hate blacks and gays!” Just kidding - that material is reserved for his newsletters.

Update 8:14 PM CST:: Rudy is promoting balance in all things. He must be taking yoga classes.

Update 8:11 PM CST:: Hucakbee is addressing economic issues in terms that his key snake-handling constituency can understand.

Update 8:07 PM CST:: McCain says that he’s ready to wield the veto pen and tackle wasteful spending.

Update 8:03 PM CST:: I almost clicked past it at the start. I saw that musical number and thought it was a state beauty pageant.

I’ll be liveblogging tonight’s action. Refresh this page for updates once things get rolling. There’s already a little excitement and the event hasn’t even started:

There are several security officers at every entrance to the college checking IDs. Two hours before the forum is scheduled to start there are already about 30 Paul supporters protesting on the sidewalk. There have also been unconfirmed reports about a small aircraft flying a banner reading “Ron Paul Revolution” around Manchester.

They’re as loony as the Code Pink crowd - but probably better looking. Stay tuned for updates.

Wrap Up
The Fox focus group is hammering Huckabee on his initial confrontation with Romney. The exchange between the two of them, and Wallace’s attack on Huckabee’s foreign policy shortcomings, are the big stories coming out of this event. Will it have an impact? I think so. The Huckabee surge may have been slowed.

McCain performed well enough. He certainly didn’t sustain any real damage. I think the question here is did Romney’s slightly better performance sway a game-changing percentage of undecided voters? It’s possible.

The group’s take on Fred Thompson is exactly what I’ve feared. In essence they agree with him but his style is a major turnoff. They overwhelmingly agreed that he was the worst performer. It’s unfortunate but not unexpected.

Update 8:30 PM CST:
Huckabee thinks Republicans could hold the White House if they “actually solve problems.” It sounds silly but I think it will resonate. McCain’s focus is security.

Update 8:26 PM CST:
Wallace is grilling Rudy on the Bernie Kerik case and asking his to assure “republican voters” that they won’t have to worry about Rudy being further implicated or tied to the mob. I don’t think Rudy managed to pull that off.

Update 8:20 PM CST:
Wallace is on “flip-flopping” now. These topics are useless and tired.

Update 8:20 PM CST:
Huckabee: “Chuck Norris is standing outside right now.”
Thompson: “If John Wayne was here I’d have him beat him up.”

Update 8:17 PM CST:
Huckabee is referencing his slimy ad stunt in an attempt to address Wallace’s question about the tone of the campaign.

Update 8:14 PM CST:
Fox is replaying highlights from various negative campaign ads. McCain went first and didn’t bite.

Update 8:10 PM CST:
Fred has the only insightful take on immigration and blames policy makers on both sides of the border for encouraging illegal immigration.

Update 8:08 PM CST:
Rudy is rattling off the immigration buzzwords.

Update 8:07 PM CST:
Romney and Wallace are trying to challenge the harshness of Huckabee’s immigration plan.

Update 8:05 PM CST:
Romney and Wallace are trying to challenge the harshness of Huckabee’s immigration plan.

Update 8:00 PM CST:
Romney is pwning McCain on illegal immigration. That’s easy enough to do.

Update 7:54 PM CST:
Fred lands another: “Wasn’t that Ted Kennedy at your bill signing?” - directed at Mitt.

Update 7:53 PM CST:
Fred lands one: “My friend Mitt thinks experience is important in all areas except national security.”

Update 7:46 PM CST:
Holy crap! Chris Wallace just destroyed Huckabee. He highlighted his numerous national security and foreign policy missteps and then asked him, in essence, how can you claim to be up for the job? This will be the defining moment of this event unless Ron Paul steers his blimp into the building.

Update 7:43 PM CST:
Romney: “The Clinton’s have endorsed Senator McCain’s immigration plan.” Ouch. He made a pretty good case for the office requiring broad based leadership skills instead of specific expertise. It’s his attempt to undercut McCain’s national security credentials while highlighting his impressive resume.

Update 7:36 PM CST:
Rudy dismissed the whole change question as frivolous. It was my favorite take.

Update 7:34 PM CST:
McCain is shifting from change to national security. He’s blasting Adam Gadahn for tearing up his passport and promising to deliver Osama.

Update 7:32 PM CST:
Romney on McCain and change: “Just sending the same people to Washington, but in different chairs, is not going to change the outcome.”

Update 7:29 PM CST:
Ugh. Chris Wallace wants to talk about “change”.

Update 7:28 PM CST:
Fred Thompson is calling for a simplified tax code but Wallace wants to move on.

Update 7:23 PM CST:
Romney: “We also need a president who knows how to shrink the federal government.” Amen and a great response to Huckabee’s cheesy class warfare.

Update 7:21 PM CST:
Huckabee is feeling your pain. It would be a good moment for him if Romney hadn’t just kicked his feet out from under him on taxes.

Update 7:20 PM CST:
McCain on Social Security: “Tell the American people it’s broken and it’s got to be fixed.”

Update 7:18 PM CST:
Fred Thompson on Social Security: “I have the only plan dealing with Social Security.” and “We’re promising future retirees something we can’t possible deliver.” I want to see him back up and tackle the tax issue.

Update 7:14 PM CST:
Rudy: “I am a supply-sider.”

Update 7:11 PM CST:
Romney on Huckabee’s tax claims: “Mike, you make up facts faster than you talk.” Huckabee then dodged a direct question, twice - “Did you raise taxes?”

Update 7:08 PM CST:
Huckabee getting nailed on $500 million in tax increases.

Update 7:08 PM CST:
Romney: “I’ve got a record of cutting spending and cutting taxes.” He seems a bit agitated.

Update 7:05 PM CST:
McCain: Spending cuts drive tax cuts. He’s more on target, in both tone and message, than Romney.

Update 7:03 PM CST:
We’re starting off on taxes. Chris is hitting Romney on tax increases and Romney is immediately deflecting with jabs at McCain and Huckabee.

Update 7:00 PM CST:
Chris Wallace is kicking off the show.

This approach, this tone, will unravel Hillary’s campaign faster than the Obama-smitten media ever hoped to. It’s at least as annoying as Ron Paul’s persistent whine.

Her poll numbers in New Hampshire are not looking good.

David Plouffe made the announcement on the Obama HQ blog:

Unfortunately, we simply cannot run the kind of campaign we want and need to, engaging with voters in the early states and February 5 states, if our schedule is dictated by dozens of forums and debates. Ultimately, the one group left out of the current schedule is the voters and they are the ones who ask the toughest questions and most deserve to have those questions answered face to face.

Therefore, after this week, we will only be attending the five DNC debates through the sanctioning period of December 10, Univision, and the two Iowa debates previously mentioned. Candidate forums - where candidates appear sequentially will be considered, but we are unlikely to accept many of these. Instead, Barack will spend his time answering questions directly from voters in places like Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and elsewhere. We simply cannot continue to hopscotch from forum to forum and run a campaign true to the bottom up movement for change that propelled Barack into this race.

After the sanctioning period, there will undoubtedly be a large number of debates scheduled in the early states and in February 5 states. We will make decisions on those as we get closer, but will clearly be doing a healthy number of debates after the sanctioning period.

The real problem for this campaign is that Obama has repeatedly jammed foot in mouth. Campaign managers, faced with a likeable but green (naive, inexperienced, untested) candidate, can only really do one thing - tell them to shut up. So now B.O. gets reigned in a bit where he can play it safe on the way to becoming Hillary Clinton’s running mate. This all looks very vice presidential.

I didn’t watch but Blogcritics Magazine lives up to it’s name with a critical wrapup of the event:

The nation desperately needs leadership from someone of high ideals who has a core set of beliefs and holds to them regardless of whether they test well in focus groups. The President’s job is to make decisions, and to do that effectively you need to believe in something more than just winning an election. In this campaign that quality of leadership seems to be missing from most of the major candidates in both parties. I’d be happy just to see a major candidate from either party whose positions don’t look like they were formed by a committee of lawyers.

Look at the approval ratings of Congress (24%) and the President (29%). Do you think we actually want more of the same old pandering and reliable mediocrity for another four years? Apparently the major Democratic candidates think we do. This was their chance to take a stand on an issue that a lot of people care about, stake out the moral high ground and set themselves above the pack, and no one with more than 2% in the polls wanted to take even this mildly controversial position. If they cannot lead on an issue like this, how can we expect them to lead on more critical issues?

Now voters are left wondering whether there is any candidate who has the necessary qualities to be the kind of president the nation needs.

A friend just asked me if I’d seen Ron Paul’s awesome performance in ABC’s post-debate poll. Sigh.

Look, Ron Paul isn’t kicking ass in real life. He has this band of no-lifers who sit coiled and waiting to spring on any poll that includes a Ron Paul option. Yes the Ron Paul Effect is clearly evident on the ABC poll but it’s meaningless. He isn’t running a campaign that matters, he isn’t winning debates, and he isn’t getting anywhere near the White House - ever.

Update:
So I was wrong. Ron Paul won something!

It’s a great line:

Candidates had harsh words for Democratic rival Barack Obama, who threatened Pakistani leaders this week by saying the United States would intervene with force if they didn’t do a better job identifying terrorists that take refuge there.

“He’s gone from Jane Fonda to Dr. Strangelove in one week,” Romney said of Obama.

Romney continued: “I think Obama is confused as to who our friends and who our enemies are.”

Confusion is often the result when the inexperienced grapple with issues they don’t understand.

I’ll be updating this post live during the debate. WMUR-TV in New Hampshire has live video of the event. CNN Pipeline is available as well.

I expect to enjoy this less than the Democratic debate a few days ago. Some of those folks are freak show weird and I’m not stunned when they want to raise taxes by 100 billion dollars or transform the military into a wing of the Peace Corps. However, I expect more from the Republican class and they leave me disappointed all too frequently.

LiveBlogging: (Most recent at top - scroll down to start at the beginning)

Final Thoughts: Rudy distances himself from the pack, and much like Obama earlier this week, looks the most presidential. McCain almost wins me over with his no holds barred approach on terrorism but the love fades quickly as he moves on to other topics. I was most disappointed in Romney who lacked clarity and credibility in many of his answers. The rest of the field is just noise but noise that holds up better than the corresponding second and third tier folks on the Democratic side. The wildcard here is Fred Thompson. My gut feeling is that only Rudy can go toe-to-toe with him in a forum like this - but he has to show up first.

Update: McCain on Islamic terrorism - “Everything we stand for and believe is at stake here.” and the debate closes.

Update: Tancredo said something about an America in which you don’t have to “hit 2 for Spanish” which I didn’t completely catch but boy did it sound simplistic and crazy. Rudy stepped up, spoke about the importance of legal immigration, and generally looked presidential where the others don’t.

Update: Bush’s biggest mistake - Tommy Thompson says there’s no new ideas and he’s right. Tancredo calls him liberal and he’s right too. Ron Paul points to Bush’s foreign policy but not in a manner than makes sense. Somebody tell him about 9/11 so he can say something relevant.

Update: McCain just gave an eloquent speech on behalf of Hispanic immigrants but the problem isn’t immigration it’s illegal immigration.

Update: Romney is getting getting blasted for flip-flopping by an audience member. He isn’t addressing the charge. Instead, he’s rambling on with diversionary nonsense. That’s unfortunate.

Update: “What is the most pressing moral issue in the country today?” is the question posed by a local philosophy professor. Huckabee is pointing towards abortion but widens the scope to include respect for all life and adds that it separates us from our enemies in radical Islam. Rudy agrees but wants to share our values with the world. Ron Paul is blasting preemptive war and blasts the candidates for considering a tactical nuclear strike on Iran. A country which he claims poses no threat to our security. He made so much sense and then the crazy leaked out.

Update: Tommy Thomspon wants a healthcare system built on prevention - a wellness system. He’s talking EMR too. Does he know how long it’s going to take to realize those savings across the board? He isn’t wrong exactly but it’s just part of the solution.

Update: Rudy is talking about tax cut driven healthcare and blasting the Democrats for their socialized medicine proposals. “Socialized medicine will ruin healthcare in the United States.” The man just keeps kicking ass.

Update: Rudy is speaking to a soldier and making the case for the war against terror, the war in Iraq, more effectively than any politician I’ve seen to date. And he blasted the mainstream media’s focus on negative news to wild applause. I think this will be the winning moment of the night.

Update: Break. Audience participation is next. The first half was a bit dry. There wasn’t much of a showdown on immigration considering the differing opinions on the stage. Styles and opinions vary much more on the Democratic side but they have oddballs like Kucinich so that’s to be expected. Ron Paul might be different but he’s no Kucinich.

Update: Duncan Hunter would pardon Campion and Ramos - screw Scooter Libby. Rudy would consider coming to his defense. Romney, Brownback, and Tancredo seem open to a Scooter pardon as well.

Update: They’re talking about how they would use President Bush if they were elected. Thompson would send him out on the lecture circuit. Brownback wants all the attention so he’d let Bush fade away or perhaps go to Sri Lanka - which is essentially the same thing.

Update: “Dont ask - Don’t tell” is up now. Ron Paul and Huckabee wouldn’t change the policy. Rudy feels like these issues shouldn’t be on the political radar during war. Romney has flip-flopped and now agrees with everyone else. McCain would defer to the commanders but believes that the policy works. Not one of the candidates would support openly gay people serving in the military.

Update: McCain wants to tell the oil companies how to spend their profits. Ugh.

Update: Rudy says “There is global warming” and then he flows into a call for an Apollo like project to ensure energy independence. Romney points to national security justifications for independence as well.

Update: Ron Paul does one thing few politicians do - defer to the Constitution.

Update: Brownback and McCain both had eloquent takes on religion. Unfortunately, Wolf Blitzer is forcing Romney to justify his faith.

Update: Mike Huckabee is preaching. He isn’t speaking in tongues though. That’s good. I agree with him that questions about evolution and religion aren’t important to this race.

Update: Rudy’s discussion of religion and abortion is being interrupted by lightning strikes resulting in one of the night’s funnier moments.

Update: Jim Gilmore - “Rudy McRomney would make a good ticket but it isn’t a conservative ticket.” Great line. So was the next one - “We don’t know what Tommy Thompson is.”

Update: Tommy Thompson - “The people in this country do not believe in this bill.”

Update: Brownback to illegals - “Get in the back of the line.”

Update: Duncan Hunter just blasted the myth that illegals only do the jobs Americans don’t want.

Update: Romney - Enforce the law as it exists and make the Z-Visa temporary.

Update: McCain’s closer on immigration “If someone else has a better idea…” had every other candidate on stage waving wildly.

Update: Romney and Rudy both came out with strong reason to oppose the bill. McCain is, well, being McCain. He’s holding up the bill as a model of bipartisan compromise.

Update: Immigration is up. Tancredo is coming out strongly against the bill. He repeated his promise to go after any Republican who supports it to strong applause.

Update: Jim Gilmore is strong tonight. Both he and Romney leave the nuke option on the table. It’s a silly question really. We have the weapons because there’s always the possibility that we may need them.

Update: Rudy - “This war is not a bumper sticker.”

Update: Shifting to talks with Iran. Brownback calls them the “lead sponsor of terrorism in the world” but wants to talk. Hunter believe in talks with conditions. We have to stop the flow of arms into Iraq and we reserve the right to preemptively strike their nuclear facilities. He would even authorize the use of tactical nukes if needed. Rudy won’t rule out tactical nukes either.

Update: Ron Paul - “The sooner we come home the better.”

Update: Duncan Hunter “I read the report.”

Update: McCain is coming out strong on Iraq. Unfortunately, he pisses me off on virtually every other topic.

Update: Ron Paul just got dissed. Everyone else got a shot at the first question - not Ron. His fans are going apeshit with conspiracy theories right about now.

Update: Brownback can’t give an honest answer on his reading of the pre-War NIE. Weak.

Update: Romney understands Iraq but his answer to Blitzer’s question about the subject is going to be lost on about 90% of the audience. Rudy is much clearer - “It was absolutely the right thing to do.

Update: Live free or die - Rudy wins the introductions.

Update: We haven’t started yet but I feel pretty safe declaring Fred Thompson the winner.

Update: Wolf Blitzer is introducing the candidates to the audience.