Getting Syria to the table was a bit of a coup but it’s nearly impossible to believe that we’ll see see any substantive results from this event. If there is consensus it’s only on that very point - nothing much will come of this. Peace will come when Arab leaders and anti-Zionist forces worldwide (mostly on the far-left) no longer view the Palestinians as mere canon fodder. Arab leaders have spent decades manufacturing this crisis. They’re not walking away from it any time soon. Doing so would bring all of the ugly truths about their own societies, and their leadership, into focus. True peace will only be possible after the Arab world is transformed.

Anyway, there is an official site for those who are interested. Wikipedia has more information including a pretty comprehensive rundown on the participants.

National security advisor Steve Hadley recently laid out some goals, if you can call them that, for the event:

…the focus of these discussions are the Israelis and the Palestinians launching a negotiating process, supporting them in their efforts to implement the road map, which we still think is the critical path for achieving peace, and, in parallel, building Palestinian institutions and making sure there’s international support for that. That’s what really this meeting is all about and that’s what we hope will come out of it.

In other words, they’re not hoping for much. Or as Rick Richman puts it:

So the conference will “launch negotiations” — since the last few months of actual negotiations over a “document” have failed. Since failure is not an option, this will be called a success.

Frank Viviano is bit more optimistic:

The atmosphere is marked by weakness, uncertainty and pessimism. Yet that may prove to be the Annapolis conference’s greatest strength, an unexpected prelude to breakthrough on the 60-year road to an Arab-Israeli-settlement. It is between the lines of bleak editorials, op-ed columns and analyses in the press of the Middle East itself that this hope, however slim, can be read. From Riyadh and Beirut to Cairo and Jerusalem, pre-conference media coverage has been a strange mosaic of dark foreboding and unusual glimmers of light. No less unusual is the fact that Annapolis will bring together all of the governments and mainstream players in this unending conflict for the first time – precisely because because all of them are reeling in crisis. In a sense, there could be no more potent chemistry for success at the negotiating table. The closest equivalent is the “Nixon shock” of 35 years ago, when a fiercely anti-Communist U.S. president, faced with riots in the American streets and a war about to be lost in Southeast Asia, suddenly found common ground with a marxist China gravely enfeebled by cultural revolution.

John Bolton is cranky, pessimistic, and right (as usual):

“If there is a conference and it fails, we are not simply in the status quo that we had before,” Bolton said during a Web-based question-and-answer session. “We are in a worse position, because it will show a decline in American influence, a failure in a very visible way. I wish we weren’t doing this at all.”

And The Washington Post falls somewhere in the middle:

If there are causes for optimism, they lie in the hopeful public rhetoric of Mr. Olmert and Mr. Abbas — and the fears that lie behind it. Mr. Olmert has publicly pledged several times that Israel will negotiate seriously, and he said last week that he believed there was a chance to complete a peace deal by the end of next year. His government, like many in the Middle East, is deeply worried by Iran’s attempt to expand its influence throughout the region and believes a failure of the talks would play into Tehran’s hands. That prospect may be enough to produce some progress at the Annapolis meeting and in the months to come. But the breakthrough that Ms. Rice thought was possible still looks remote.

While, Henry Siegman hits all of the Arab talking points on the way to this ridiculously one-sided conclusion:

If the international community has been largely indifferent to—or impotent to do anything about—what some have tried to portray as a quarrel between Israel and Palestinians over where to draw the border between the two, it is far less likely to remain indifferent to an Israel intent on permanently denying its majority Arab population the rights and privileges it accords to its minority of Jewish citizens. It would be an apartheid regime that, one hopes, a majority of Israelis would themselves not abide.

Things area a bit shaky in Lebanon at the moment:

From tomorrow the Middle Eastern state will not have a president, despite months of negotiation between Christian and pro-Syrian elements.

Final efforts failed when it became clear no agreement was to be reached earlier today. Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese parliament, announced that further consultation would take place before another attempt on November 30th.

For the next week the small state faces a power vacuum which many fear could result in violent clashes on the streets of Beirut.

Pro-western prime minister Fouad Siniora will assume the presidency’s powers with his cabinet in the interim, a move bitterly contested by his opponents.

The Lebanese army has deployed in force in an attempt to provide security.

Beirut Spring looks for an update in the local papers but:

Who cares if this is one of the most crucial days in our recent history? Lebanese newspapers are entitled to their “Indpendence Day” holiday (with Almustaqbal being a honorable exception). In other words, our journalists are celebrating a fake independence instead on covering attempts at creating a new one. Talk about Irony.

From Beirut to the Beltway has an update:

LBC reports the Siniora government will consider Lahoud’s declaration worthless and unconstitutional, as the council of ministers is the only body allowed to declare a state of emergency, and only for 7 days.

This is going to get interesting.

New York Daily News
James Bamford, who has written several respected books on the intelligence community, said it’s not surprising CIA vets wouldn’t care that Prouty lied. It’s the difference between the CIA and FBI cultures, he said. “One agency teaches people to lie and break the rules. The other teaches them to tell the truth and obey the rules,” Bamford said. While FBI agents are indoctrinated to be morally pure because they often testify in criminal trials, “the CIA is the opposite,” he said. “The CIA was founded on subverting laws, going over walls and under fences.”

YID With LID
So Prouty infiltrates the CIA and passes info to Hezbollah and other terrorist interests, thus harming national security. She will get a slap on the wrist. Jonathan Pollard gave an ally information that it was supposed to have anyway–and is rotting in jail. Am I missing something?

PA Pundits
This woman had been given access to detainees in Iraq, she has allegedly given information to Hezbollah, her brother-in-law is a fugitive for funneling his restaurant profits to Hezbollah, and she is married to a State Department guy who has been a bigwig in more than a couple of U.S. embassies in the Middle East.

Rantburg
“This is not John Dillinger or Reilly Ace of Spies,” said the official. “She took an illegal shortcut to the American dream, then she made some inappropriate computer searches. At this point, there is no reason to treat this as a counterintelligence case. There is NO allegation she had ever ties to Hezbollah. You can’t let suspicions get ahead of the facts.”

The Truth Shall Set You Free
…the case gives Zionists more ammunition against the Arab-American Institute (AAI), a powerful advocacy group founded in 1985 by James Zogby, brother of pollster John Zogby. The AAI is headquartered in Washington DC, and works to mobilize Arab-American voters.

Debbie Schlussel
Prouty promised money in exchange for marriage to an unemployed Michigan man living in a trailer, so she could remain in the U.S. once she thought she’d be caught overstaying her student visa. The man is Chris Deladurantaye of Lincoln Park, Michigan, a working-class suburb of Detroit. But nothing happened to Deladurantaye as a result of his fraudulent marriage, which ultimately led to a Hezbollah mole infiltrating the FBI and CIA at its highest security clearance levels.

Something…And Half of Something
Nada Nadim Prouty, just another illegal immigrant, doing the spying that Americans won’t do

Counterterrorism Blog
…underlying this failure and numerous other penetration efforts by Islamist groups is the large-scale failure of U.S. counter-intelligence efforts for many years. There are numerous cases of Chinese infiltration agents, Islamist penetration and Russian penetrations that underscore the shrinking ability to monitor or detect the spies working in this country. The capacity has been rapidly shrinking for several decades, and, despite the threat of Islamist terrorists and the growing activities of the Chinese in both traditional and industrial espionage, the entire concept of a counter-intelligence has withered on the vine, from before the Clinton administration through the current administration. Currently, that capacity barely exists, according to my friends in the intelligence community.

Michelle Malkin
The illegal alien CIA/FBI agent Nada Prouty debacle keeps getting worse and worse, uglier and uglier, outrageous and more outrageous. Today, the NYPost reports that Prouty’s former sister-in-law also engaged in a bogus immigration marriage scam and is now a…Marine officer

WorldNetDaily
Intelligence official: ‘FBI might as well put out a sign – Double agents wanted’

Power Line
The lack of interest in the story is hard to understand. You might alsmost think that major news organization don’t take national security seriously. Among those who not only take the story seriously, but who are trying to draw appropriate lessons from the case, are Debbie Schlussel, Douglas Farah, and Michelle Malkin.

Human Events
An espionage case has come to light in Detroit that has a little of everything: besides espionage, there’s an illegal immigration angle, a Keystone Kops angle, and even involvement of major presidential candidates. It would make a great movie — if this kind of thing doesn’t kill us first.

Blogs included in this roundup are maintained by Lebanese nationals or writers who are known to focus much of their attention on the country.

Lebanese Political Journal
I was on the scene for a number of the bombs in 2005, including Hariri’s assassination. It took the Army, at least, half an hour to arrive. This time, the security forces were amazingly professional. I was astounded. They were outstanding. We soon found out that 14 March Parliamentary Representative Walid Eido, his son, his two bodyguards, and at least two bystanders were killed. I was horrified that they had planted a bomb next to a children’s park. We knew there had to be bystanders killed, but we thought it was just another random bombing.

Across the Bay
So, where does that leave us? March 14 started with 72 MPs out of 128. They have now technically lost four, bringing their number to 68. If they lose 4 more, they will lose the simple (50+1) majority and thus the ability to elect a President (a top priority for Syria) or pass anything in parliament for that matter as long as Emile Lahoud remains in office. This is not to mention that this assassination comes three days after the tribunal went into effect and one day after the UNSC condemned Syria’s violation of UNSCR 1559. The message? Syria doesn’t give a damn. It will continue killing and terrorizing until it gets what it wants: full control over Lebanon and the termination of the tribunal. This is a war against the international community, not just Lebanon.

Beirut Spring
Yet another Anti-Syrian MP was savagely killed…Ohh, but the “Alqaeda” did warn this morning that they wanted to kill Lebanese politicians didn’t they? I guess the thugs in Syria have nothing to do with it then, what were we thinking?..

Michael J. Totten
Those who “engage” tyrants for a living need to pay more attention. The Syrian regime has had the same modus operandi almost as long as I have been alive. It’s time to catch up.

From Beirut to the Beltway
This is a message not only to Saad Hariri, but also to the Saudis and French, who thought they could ignore the Syrian factor and focus on resurrecting “dialogue” between the Lebanese parties. How many times do we have to say “we told you so”. As I type these words, Walid Eido’s body lies in an car on the Manara. The “future movement” deputy lost his life, and his slain son lost his future. Two Lebanese soldiers were killed earlier today by Syrian-sponsored terrorists. Who is afraid of the terrorist Assad regime?

Blacksmiths of Lebanon
Walid Eido will forever be remembered for his bravery, for being the first man to sound out the call of Enough!, for extending his hand to all Lebanese and bringing them together in a revolution of the street, and a liberation of the land and the mind. His body will be missed, but his voice will always ring loud and true.

Ya Libnan
We were in a cafe next to Luna Park enjoying the late afternoon next to the sea after an intense day. Children were playing on the equipment under the setting sun. Mothers were holding their babies. Old men were smoking argile. BOOM!!! Everyone hit the floor, except the group of European tourists who just looked surprised. Waiters dived under the tables. Mother grabbed their crying babies. Human flesh landed in the children’s play area.

The Daily Star
Wednesday’s attack was part of a campaign being carried out by Damascus to change the balance of power in the Lebanese Parliament, Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh said. “It is the same serial killer who wants to liquidate the parliamentary majority; it is a physical liquidation by the Syrian regime,” he said. Another member of the anti-Syrian camp, former President Amin Gemayel, described Eido’s assassination as having been “part of the criminal attacks that have targeted leaders and personalities of the ‘Cedar Revolution’” that ended Syrian domination in Lebanon. “This crime will not deter us … and what happens today highlights the importance of the international tribunal,” said Gemayel, father of the industry minister slain in November.

Naharnet
The March 14 alliance has blamed the Gemayel assassination on Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime. Syria has denied the charge. The alliance says Syrian intelligence agents are out to assassinate majority MPs to prevent the bloc from electing an anti-Syrian president succeeding Lahoud. Lahoud’s term was extended for three years in Sept. 2004 by a Syrian-orchestrated constitutional amendment. The majority blames Syria for a series of assassinations targeting Lebanese politicians, beginning with the powerful blast that killed ex-Premier Rafik Hariri on Feb. 14, 2005. Also killed were MP Gebran Tueni, MP Bassel Fleihan, Journalist Samir Qassir and former Communist Party leader George Hawi.

Now Lebanon
“Mothers started grabbing their children, and gathering in groups to decide what to do,” added his companion, Kristen. “It was such a beautiful day … I heard they found body parts in our café.”

Lebanon asked for help and they’re getting it:

Lebanese forces battling Islamic militants inside Lebanon will be resupplied by a shipment of U.S. military ammunition, which is expected to arrive within two days, senior U.S. officials told CNN’s Barbara Starr on Thursday.

In the meantime, both sides flatly rejected calls to surrender.

A statement attributed to Fatah al-Islam was sent Thursday to several media outlets in Lebanon, saying the militant group intends ” to blow up several crusaders’ universities and schools tomorrow in the event the Lebanese army does not surrender.” Crusaders usually refers to Americans or Westerners.

Responding to Lebanon’s call for immediate military assistance, the U.S. military will send as many as six cargo flights carrying ammunition to Lebanon, the officials said.

One senior U.S. military official said it is rare to send military flights on such a mission, considering the sensitive nature of the United States’ role in the Middle East. But the Bush administration decided it could not wait to charter commercial cargo planes for the resupply mission, the official said.

Hopefully, there’s some assistance on the intel front as well.

Lebanon is a mess:

Much of Lebanon remains paralyzed, Tuesday, as supporters of the pro-Syrian Hezbollah group block Lebanon’s coastal highway and main thoroughfares in Beirut and other cities. From Beirut, Edward Yeranian reports this is all a bid to impose a general strike on the rest of the population.

A column of tanks rolls down Hamra Street - one of Beirut’s main commercial thoroughfares - as Lebanese Army troops attempt to reopen avenues blocked by supporters and allies of the Hezbollah guerilla group.

A crowd of mostly young men scuffles with police, further down the road, burning tires and attempting to block traffic, as thick clouds of black smoke pour into the air.

On the road to Beirut Airport, young men have erected a barrier of burning tires and play soccer on the highway, as army troops and police stand by and watch.

It could get worse:

The opposition has successfully paralyzed the country. It’s time for a suitable response. Tensions are rising with young Lebanese emailing me saying “since they are keeping “us” out, perhaps we should keep “them” in - burning tires around the downtown camps and Dahieh for a week.”

Of course there are voices in the blogosphere supporting the thugs behind today’s riots:

Yesterday I was telling a few people how the opposition will never succeed with its pacifist attitudes and behaviour in toppling the government, and that if they want to achieve anything, they will have to shift onto a militant stance.

Well, it seems they finally heard me. And about time that they did something like this.

Michael J. Totten visits Lebanon regularly and should be one of your regular stops:

While I was in Lebanon gathering the material I’ve been publishing, Hezbollah kept threatening to strangle the country by seizing major roads, including the one that leads to the airport. I was worried I might get stuck there, but I didn’t. Today, though, they finally make good on their threat. Palestinian guerillas are reportedly helping.

I’m sure that they are.

The BBC, Manamania, and Blacksmiths of Lebanon have photo galleries. Blacksmiths also points to a website (down at the time of writing) that is being used to coordinate protests:

The Free Patriot Movement (FPM) opposition website has disclosed a list of the roads, across the country, to be blocked by its supporters and their allies within the pro-Syrian opposition forces.

Blue Crab Boulevard call the whole things a coup attempt:

Hezbollah has stepped up its campaign against the Lebanese government and has shut down Beirut and surrounding areas using barricades and armed men. They are calling it a general strike. It is more than that. It is a coup attempt by any rational standard.

Hugh Hewitt appears to agree and adds:

Where’s the Iraq Study Group when you need them

The Elephant Bar points to the Shiites:

The Shiites are the predominate tribe in Iraq. We are there to ensure the spread of democracy both in Iraq and beyond their borders. It just gets confusing beyond their borders. Actually it is confusing within their borders as well, but we are focusing on Lebanon. So is Syria and Iran. Lebanon has democracy. The Shiites do not like the results and want to end that. Democracy does not burn as brightly in the Lebanese Shiite breast as say it does in the Iraqi Shiite breast. Democracy does not seem to be smoldering in the Syrian and Iranian Shiite soul either. Too bad some of our soul-gazers in DC did not notice that earlier.

My morning commute doesn’t seem quite so bad after reading Annie’s blog:

This morning when I left my house to go to work, I had to pass through burning tires and people obviously agitated throwing stones to passing cars. I had to walk because there was no public transportation. Since I work in a NGO, we can not have the senior citizens and children waiting without being welcomed and served.

Finally I arrived at work, where I still am.

I don’t think many companies are functioning, neither schools or shops opened. This is a day of demonstrations. So some parties called their people to stay home, others encouraged them to continue their daily lives. But apparently, this demonstration is not so peaceful as the national TV: LBC points out. There is violence from both sides, injuries and of course “loads” of pollution from the burning fuel and tires.

Lebanese Media:
The Daily Star
Naharnet
Ya Libnan

Related:
Reuters: Lebanon Facts

If you have any doubts about the significance of the events in Lebanon you obviouslly haven’t been listening to John Bolton.

Hezbollah, along with other political forces allied with Syria, is expected to launch street demonstrations this week, aiming to force the resignation of Mr. Siniora and his cabinet.

Pro-Western groups have said they will respond with protests of their own, leading to worries that duelling street demonstrations could devolve into violence.

Mohammed Raad, the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary caucus, said that out of respect for Pierre Gemayel, a Christian leader who was assassinated last week, pro-Syrian forces would give the government several more days to meet its demands.

“The ruling majority has a chance until the mourning period ends, and it should seize that opportunity, or else they will get themselves into a dark tunnel,” he said.

John Bolton, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, upped the stakes over the weekend, saying that Lebanon was locked in a battle between “democracy and terrorism” that could decide the course of the entire region. “The future of the Middle East . may well be decided in the next several days.”

That’s a pretty ominous statement well, incredibly ominous, but fitting in a time where the whole world seems to be one incident away from catastrophe.

[Developing]

It’s getting very tense in Lebanon:

Industry Minister and Christian leader Pierre Gemayel was gunned down as his convoy drove through the Christian Sin el-Fil neighbourhood.

The shooting comes at a time when Lebanese political and sectarian tensions already are at fever pitch.

Mr Gemayel was a member of the Phalange party and supporter of the anti-Syrian parliamentary majority, which is locked in a power struggle with pro-Syrian factions led by Hezbollah.

Michelle Malkin: This is the big news of the day. Or rather, in a non-O.J., non-Hollyweird-drenched, non-trivialized world, it would be the big news of the day.

The Lebanese Bloggers: Gemayel was leaving New Jdeideh where he was paying condolences St. Anthony-Jdeideh church. He was driving his Kia, accompanied by two others. 50 meters past the church, a car stopped and three men went down from the car and sprayed him with bullets. Angry Phalangists are burning tires in front of the Kataeb headquarters in Saifi, Beirut. The Internal Security Forces blocked the road from Doura to Saifi.

Beirut Spring: I send my deepest condolences to his family and loved ones. Another hero on the road to our blood soaked independence falls.

From Beirut to the Beltway: Saad interrupted the press conference upon receiving the news. He then returned to announce that Gemayel was killed, and accused the Assad regime of trying to kill every free person in Lebanon. Hariri said, chocking with tears, “There is nothing left to discuss with the killer Syrian regime. The international tribunal is between us, and let whatever happens happen.”

BacK to Iraq: I don’t know much right now, but this could be the spark in the can of gasoline that Lebanon has become.

Outside the Beltway: Not good.

Hot Air: They’re not 100% sure yet that it was a political assassination but Fox just broke in to say the shooter was a sniper. If the Syrians are behind it, it’s both par for the course and incredibly stupid, coming as it does two days before Hezbollah is set to take to the streets to try to “peacefully” topple the government and four days before that super-keen, let-the-healing-begin summit between Iraq, Syria, and Iran.

Right Wing Nut House: The choice of the younger Gemayel as a target was no accident. It sends an absolutely clear signal to the rest of Prime Minister Siniora’s cabinet, written in blood, that no one – not even the Prime Minister himself – is safe:

7.62mm Justice: The timing is interesting, in that Hezbollah is about to take to the streets of Lebanon to try and topple the government. It will more than likely widely be blamed on Syria. It is well known that Iran, via it’s puppet state Syria, pulls the strings on Hezbollah.

Jihad Watch: Hizballah said it would topple the government. Is it making its move now?

Snapped Shot: This is definitely a continuation of Syria’s takeover-by-proxy of Lebanon, and should be roundly condemned by the international media and United Nations as such. I’m not going to hold my breath for the condemnation, though.

Sister Toldjah: I wonder who did it? Well, not really, as it’s easy to guess…

Lebanonesque: We descend yet to another of the circles of hell. I’m too sick to write about this now. The authorities promised an investigation to find the culprits. Should laugh or cry? Is that getting beyond sick or what?

Across the Bay: Syria has a primary objective that outweighs everything else: kill the Hariri tribunal, and redominate Lebanon at any cost. This is nothing short than a fight to the death for the Syrians. And, as these thugs have done throughout their bloody history, they will kill anyone. My fear is that they will go after a couple more ministers to ensure the government falls. We know what the Lebanese are prepared to do. Now, what is the Intl. Community prepared to do?

The Jawa Report: Gemayel was a member of the Kataeb Social Democratic Party, more commonly referred to as the Christian Phalange. The armed wing of the Phalange was the most important Christian faction during the Lebanese civil war. His father was the former President Amin Gemayel and his uncle, Bashir Gemayel, was also assassinated shortly after his election as President. During the civil war the Phalangists forces were allies with Israel. In 1982 it was this same Christian militia, not Israel, that massacred Palestinian refugees in the Sabra and Shatila camps.

Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns: We will give full support to the Saniora government in the days and weeks ahead…

Webloggin: The United Nations reaction was typical. They wanted to postpone the International tribunal in the Hariri case because of Lebanon’s instability. That is the kind of assertiveness we have come to expect from the increasingly pro-Muslim council.

Democratic Underground (Joanne98): The truth is that factions of the world elite are fighting and it’s their fight not ours. The people suffer in every country so I think a change is in order. Let the WEALTHY SUFFER FOR A CHANGE! I’ve always thought it suspious, that OBL banned assassinations. I makes be think they are working together against us. It’s time for a straight class warfare attitude. I wouldn’t mind having “rulers” if they weren’t so damed greedy.