Lebanese Political Journal
SSNP guys sit on many corners in Hamra and are patrolling on motor scooters. Their flags are everywhere, and they are gloating. I was regularly mistaken for being an SSNP guy while out walking, because I am the right age, wearing the right clothes, and fitting the right physique to be one of their guys. The SSNP security guys gave me nods, the Army diverted their eyes, and the neighborhood residents gave me looks of absolute hatred.

Across the Bay
Aside from assaulting the Hariri Foundation — a foundation that has paid for the education of thousands upon thousands of Lebanese college students — Hezbollah and its goons have focused their venom, hatred and destruction on the media. The very first thing they attacked, burned and destroyed were newspapers, radio stations, and TV stations that support March 14th political line.

NOW! Lebanon
At least 16 people were killed in clashes in Lebanon on Saturday between supporters of the government and the opposition, security and hospital officials said. Fierce clashes in the Akkar region of north Lebanon killed 14 people, including civilians, when members of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party battled supporters of the Future Movement, a security official said. “The headquarters of the Syrian Social National Party (SSNP) in Halba fell to the Future Movement forces,” said the official, adding that seven people were found dead inside.

Blacksmiths of Lebanon
News sources in Lebanon are reporting a statement issued by Army Command calling for the withdrawal of all armed elements from the street. The Army’s statement also declared the establishment of an internal probe into the airport security affair, without the removal [as yet] of Brigadier General Wafik Shoukair as head of airport security; and the establishment of its own study into the Hizballah communication network, along lines that “would not harm the resistance’s integrity and security”.

The final update sums matters up nicely.

Blogging Beirut
SHIT HAS HIT THE FAN

Why do we seem so ill-prepared for events that are clearly inevitable?

The United States is conferring with the U.N. Security Council and others in the Middle East about possible measures against those responsible for the recent violence in Beirut, the White House said on Friday.

The White House has accused the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah of inciting the violence in the Lebanese capital and routing forces loyal to the U.S.-backed government.

Because nothing frightens the enemies of peace and freedom like a diplomatically crafted expression of concern.

Getting Syria to the table was a bit of a coup but it’s nearly impossible to believe that we’ll see see any substantive results from this event. If there is consensus it’s only on that very point - nothing much will come of this. Peace will come when Arab leaders and anti-Zionist forces worldwide (mostly on the far-left) no longer view the Palestinians as mere canon fodder. Arab leaders have spent decades manufacturing this crisis. They’re not walking away from it any time soon. Doing so would bring all of the ugly truths about their own societies, and their leadership, into focus. True peace will only be possible after the Arab world is transformed.

Anyway, there is an official site for those who are interested. Wikipedia has more information including a pretty comprehensive rundown on the participants.

National security advisor Steve Hadley recently laid out some goals, if you can call them that, for the event:

…the focus of these discussions are the Israelis and the Palestinians launching a negotiating process, supporting them in their efforts to implement the road map, which we still think is the critical path for achieving peace, and, in parallel, building Palestinian institutions and making sure there’s international support for that. That’s what really this meeting is all about and that’s what we hope will come out of it.

In other words, they’re not hoping for much. Or as Rick Richman puts it:

So the conference will “launch negotiations” — since the last few months of actual negotiations over a “document” have failed. Since failure is not an option, this will be called a success.

Frank Viviano is bit more optimistic:

The atmosphere is marked by weakness, uncertainty and pessimism. Yet that may prove to be the Annapolis conference’s greatest strength, an unexpected prelude to breakthrough on the 60-year road to an Arab-Israeli-settlement. It is between the lines of bleak editorials, op-ed columns and analyses in the press of the Middle East itself that this hope, however slim, can be read. From Riyadh and Beirut to Cairo and Jerusalem, pre-conference media coverage has been a strange mosaic of dark foreboding and unusual glimmers of light. No less unusual is the fact that Annapolis will bring together all of the governments and mainstream players in this unending conflict for the first time – precisely because because all of them are reeling in crisis. In a sense, there could be no more potent chemistry for success at the negotiating table. The closest equivalent is the “Nixon shock” of 35 years ago, when a fiercely anti-Communist U.S. president, faced with riots in the American streets and a war about to be lost in Southeast Asia, suddenly found common ground with a marxist China gravely enfeebled by cultural revolution.

John Bolton is cranky, pessimistic, and right (as usual):

“If there is a conference and it fails, we are not simply in the status quo that we had before,” Bolton said during a Web-based question-and-answer session. “We are in a worse position, because it will show a decline in American influence, a failure in a very visible way. I wish we weren’t doing this at all.”

And The Washington Post falls somewhere in the middle:

If there are causes for optimism, they lie in the hopeful public rhetoric of Mr. Olmert and Mr. Abbas — and the fears that lie behind it. Mr. Olmert has publicly pledged several times that Israel will negotiate seriously, and he said last week that he believed there was a chance to complete a peace deal by the end of next year. His government, like many in the Middle East, is deeply worried by Iran’s attempt to expand its influence throughout the region and believes a failure of the talks would play into Tehran’s hands. That prospect may be enough to produce some progress at the Annapolis meeting and in the months to come. But the breakthrough that Ms. Rice thought was possible still looks remote.

While, Henry Siegman hits all of the Arab talking points on the way to this ridiculously one-sided conclusion:

If the international community has been largely indifferent to—or impotent to do anything about—what some have tried to portray as a quarrel between Israel and Palestinians over where to draw the border between the two, it is far less likely to remain indifferent to an Israel intent on permanently denying its majority Arab population the rights and privileges it accords to its minority of Jewish citizens. It would be an apartheid regime that, one hopes, a majority of Israelis would themselves not abide.

The Israeli response it pretty funny actually. According to them it’s just not a big deal:

In the first reaction from an Israeli official to Wednesday night’s alleged IAF foray over Syria, Science, Culture and Sports Minister Ghaleb Majadle said Friday that IAF planes enter Syrian airspace on a daily basis, adding that he did not believe the latest alleged incident would spark off a war.

Majadle told the Nazareth-based A-Sinara newspaper that while he had no specific information about the latest alleged operation, it was likely that “the planes either entered Syrian airspace to take photographs or in error.”

So they were either spying or there accidentally. I’ll let you decide which.

Blogs included in this roundup are maintained by Lebanese nationals or writers who are known to focus much of their attention on the country.

Lebanese Political Journal
I was on the scene for a number of the bombs in 2005, including Hariri’s assassination. It took the Army, at least, half an hour to arrive. This time, the security forces were amazingly professional. I was astounded. They were outstanding. We soon found out that 14 March Parliamentary Representative Walid Eido, his son, his two bodyguards, and at least two bystanders were killed. I was horrified that they had planted a bomb next to a children’s park. We knew there had to be bystanders killed, but we thought it was just another random bombing.

Across the Bay
So, where does that leave us? March 14 started with 72 MPs out of 128. They have now technically lost four, bringing their number to 68. If they lose 4 more, they will lose the simple (50+1) majority and thus the ability to elect a President (a top priority for Syria) or pass anything in parliament for that matter as long as Emile Lahoud remains in office. This is not to mention that this assassination comes three days after the tribunal went into effect and one day after the UNSC condemned Syria’s violation of UNSCR 1559. The message? Syria doesn’t give a damn. It will continue killing and terrorizing until it gets what it wants: full control over Lebanon and the termination of the tribunal. This is a war against the international community, not just Lebanon.

Beirut Spring
Yet another Anti-Syrian MP was savagely killed…Ohh, but the “Alqaeda” did warn this morning that they wanted to kill Lebanese politicians didn’t they? I guess the thugs in Syria have nothing to do with it then, what were we thinking?..

Michael J. Totten
Those who “engage” tyrants for a living need to pay more attention. The Syrian regime has had the same modus operandi almost as long as I have been alive. It’s time to catch up.

From Beirut to the Beltway
This is a message not only to Saad Hariri, but also to the Saudis and French, who thought they could ignore the Syrian factor and focus on resurrecting “dialogue” between the Lebanese parties. How many times do we have to say “we told you so”. As I type these words, Walid Eido’s body lies in an car on the Manara. The “future movement” deputy lost his life, and his slain son lost his future. Two Lebanese soldiers were killed earlier today by Syrian-sponsored terrorists. Who is afraid of the terrorist Assad regime?

Blacksmiths of Lebanon
Walid Eido will forever be remembered for his bravery, for being the first man to sound out the call of Enough!, for extending his hand to all Lebanese and bringing them together in a revolution of the street, and a liberation of the land and the mind. His body will be missed, but his voice will always ring loud and true.

Ya Libnan
We were in a cafe next to Luna Park enjoying the late afternoon next to the sea after an intense day. Children were playing on the equipment under the setting sun. Mothers were holding their babies. Old men were smoking argile. BOOM!!! Everyone hit the floor, except the group of European tourists who just looked surprised. Waiters dived under the tables. Mother grabbed their crying babies. Human flesh landed in the children’s play area.

The Daily Star
Wednesday’s attack was part of a campaign being carried out by Damascus to change the balance of power in the Lebanese Parliament, Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh said. “It is the same serial killer who wants to liquidate the parliamentary majority; it is a physical liquidation by the Syrian regime,” he said. Another member of the anti-Syrian camp, former President Amin Gemayel, described Eido’s assassination as having been “part of the criminal attacks that have targeted leaders and personalities of the ‘Cedar Revolution’” that ended Syrian domination in Lebanon. “This crime will not deter us … and what happens today highlights the importance of the international tribunal,” said Gemayel, father of the industry minister slain in November.

Naharnet
The March 14 alliance has blamed the Gemayel assassination on Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime. Syria has denied the charge. The alliance says Syrian intelligence agents are out to assassinate majority MPs to prevent the bloc from electing an anti-Syrian president succeeding Lahoud. Lahoud’s term was extended for three years in Sept. 2004 by a Syrian-orchestrated constitutional amendment. The majority blames Syria for a series of assassinations targeting Lebanese politicians, beginning with the powerful blast that killed ex-Premier Rafik Hariri on Feb. 14, 2005. Also killed were MP Gebran Tueni, MP Bassel Fleihan, Journalist Samir Qassir and former Communist Party leader George Hawi.

Now Lebanon
“Mothers started grabbing their children, and gathering in groups to decide what to do,” added his companion, Kristen. “It was such a beautiful day … I heard they found body parts in our café.”

They’ll be using militant proxies of course:

US officials now say they have firm evidence that Tehran has switched tack as it senses a chance of victory in Iraq. In a parallel development, they say they also have proof that Iran has reversed its previous policy in Afghanistan and is now supporting and supplying the Taliban’s campaign against US, British and other Nato forces.

Tehran’s strategy to discredit the US surge and foment a decisive congressional revolt against Mr Bush is national in scope and not confined to the Shia south, its traditional sphere of influence, the senior official in Baghdad said. It included stepped-up coordination with Shia militias such as Moqtada al-Sadr’s Jaish al-Mahdi as well as Syrian-backed Sunni Arab groups and al-Qaida in Mesopotamia, he added. Iran was also expanding contacts across the board with paramilitary forces and political groups, including Kurdish parties such as the PUK, a US ally.

“Their strategy takes into account all these various parties. Iran is playing all these different factions to maximise its future control and maximise US and British difficulties. Their co-conspirator is Syria which is allowing the takfirists [fundamentalist Salafi jihadis] to come across the border,” the official said.

Any US decision to retaliate against Iran on its own territory could be taken only at the highest political level in Washington, the official said. But he indicated that American patience was wearing thin.

Iran seems destined to overplay it’s hand. They may have already done so. I just hope that our inevitable response is forceful enough to contain and destabilize the current regime. We have to look past their infamous nuclear sites and target the entire military and political infrastructure for there to be any hope of success.

It will be interesting to see how we respond to this request:

Lebanon’s economy minister on Monday asked for money and resources to help Lebanese forces battling members of an Islamic militant group in a Palestinian refugee camp near Tripoli.

“I take this opportunity to ask our friends all over the world — Arab governments and friendly Western governments — to help us both logistically and with military equipment,” Minister Sami Haddad told CNN.

The militant group Fatah al-Islam, he said, is well-financed and heavily armed, but the army’s morale is high, and the government has public opinion on its side.

“We can hold out, but the help I’m requesting will be very important in speeding up our eventual victory,” he said.

Fadi of Gad Fly has had enough:

I am fed up! Surrounded by an enemy for a southern neighbor, and a pest of brotherhood on our northern and eastern border, we just needed creepy guests in the Palestinian Camps to make our life perfect! Fat7 El-Islam my foot. A collection of moron sociopaths - nothing less; a collection bank looters and highway robbers, Thelma and Louise were better gangsters!!

Have they run out of enemies in the IDF so that they start killing the Lebanese Army personnel? I heard on Jazeera there spokesman (sic) claiming he wants to defend the “Ahl el Sunna” in Lebanon. More self-appointed saviors for those who do not need saving. Who’s next? The Simpsons?

Bearded Ma Bakers! Islam does not need you. Sunnis do not need you, and God knows, God does not need you. Palestine is Southward, Nahr El Barid is 150KM far off your destination. March away, and watch that you do not trip with your tails.

The Beirut Spring has updates including photos of the Verdun district bombing.

Although it resembles yesterday’s Ashrafieh bombing, the Verdun bombing has meanings of its own. For example, this is the first time that a Sunni neighborhood of Beirut is targeted, after terrorism being exclusively carried out in Christian areas. This could mark the beginning of a new phase of “destabilization”.

The explosion also comes at the heel of Syria’s Foreign Affairs’ Minister’s not-so-hidden threat:
“Will rushing to establish this tribunal, despite the division in Lebanon, really bring security and peace, or will it threaten the security and safety of Lebanon?”, or, to translate it into lay-language: “we will burn the hell out of Lebanon if the tribunal moves through”. It also comes after the Fatah al Islam threatened to sow terrorism in other Lebanese areas if the Army does not stop shelling them.

Chercheuse d’or and Blacksmiths of Lebanon have photos as well.

Keep an eye on Michael J. Totten’s site as this story develops.

Other Lebanese Blogs:
Lebanese Bloggers Forum
Across the Bay

Lebanese Media:
The Daily Star
Naharnet.com

Lebanese Military:
Lebanese Armed Forces
Global Security Lebanon Military Guide

Lebanon is a mess:

Much of Lebanon remains paralyzed, Tuesday, as supporters of the pro-Syrian Hezbollah group block Lebanon’s coastal highway and main thoroughfares in Beirut and other cities. From Beirut, Edward Yeranian reports this is all a bid to impose a general strike on the rest of the population.

A column of tanks rolls down Hamra Street - one of Beirut’s main commercial thoroughfares - as Lebanese Army troops attempt to reopen avenues blocked by supporters and allies of the Hezbollah guerilla group.

A crowd of mostly young men scuffles with police, further down the road, burning tires and attempting to block traffic, as thick clouds of black smoke pour into the air.

On the road to Beirut Airport, young men have erected a barrier of burning tires and play soccer on the highway, as army troops and police stand by and watch.

It could get worse:

The opposition has successfully paralyzed the country. It’s time for a suitable response. Tensions are rising with young Lebanese emailing me saying “since they are keeping “us” out, perhaps we should keep “them” in - burning tires around the downtown camps and Dahieh for a week.”

Of course there are voices in the blogosphere supporting the thugs behind today’s riots:

Yesterday I was telling a few people how the opposition will never succeed with its pacifist attitudes and behaviour in toppling the government, and that if they want to achieve anything, they will have to shift onto a militant stance.

Well, it seems they finally heard me. And about time that they did something like this.

Michael J. Totten visits Lebanon regularly and should be one of your regular stops:

While I was in Lebanon gathering the material I’ve been publishing, Hezbollah kept threatening to strangle the country by seizing major roads, including the one that leads to the airport. I was worried I might get stuck there, but I didn’t. Today, though, they finally make good on their threat. Palestinian guerillas are reportedly helping.

I’m sure that they are.

The BBC, Manamania, and Blacksmiths of Lebanon have photo galleries. Blacksmiths also points to a website (down at the time of writing) that is being used to coordinate protests:

The Free Patriot Movement (FPM) opposition website has disclosed a list of the roads, across the country, to be blocked by its supporters and their allies within the pro-Syrian opposition forces.

Blue Crab Boulevard call the whole things a coup attempt:

Hezbollah has stepped up its campaign against the Lebanese government and has shut down Beirut and surrounding areas using barricades and armed men. They are calling it a general strike. It is more than that. It is a coup attempt by any rational standard.

Hugh Hewitt appears to agree and adds:

Where’s the Iraq Study Group when you need them

The Elephant Bar points to the Shiites:

The Shiites are the predominate tribe in Iraq. We are there to ensure the spread of democracy both in Iraq and beyond their borders. It just gets confusing beyond their borders. Actually it is confusing within their borders as well, but we are focusing on Lebanon. So is Syria and Iran. Lebanon has democracy. The Shiites do not like the results and want to end that. Democracy does not burn as brightly in the Lebanese Shiite breast as say it does in the Iraqi Shiite breast. Democracy does not seem to be smoldering in the Syrian and Iranian Shiite soul either. Too bad some of our soul-gazers in DC did not notice that earlier.

My morning commute doesn’t seem quite so bad after reading Annie’s blog:

This morning when I left my house to go to work, I had to pass through burning tires and people obviously agitated throwing stones to passing cars. I had to walk because there was no public transportation. Since I work in a NGO, we can not have the senior citizens and children waiting without being welcomed and served.

Finally I arrived at work, where I still am.

I don’t think many companies are functioning, neither schools or shops opened. This is a day of demonstrations. So some parties called their people to stay home, others encouraged them to continue their daily lives. But apparently, this demonstration is not so peaceful as the national TV: LBC points out. There is violence from both sides, injuries and of course “loads” of pollution from the burning fuel and tires.

Lebanese Media:
The Daily Star
Naharnet
Ya Libnan

Related:
Reuters: Lebanon Facts