People seem surprised. I’m only surprised that McCain hasn’t taken a bigger lead over the pretend president. At least the poll gap is finally starting to mirror the experience gap:

In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama’s solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama’s experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip.

The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday as Obama wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Hawaii that ceded the political spotlight to McCain, who seized on Russia’s invasion of Georgia to emphasize his foreign policy views.

This isn’t complicated. With the spotlight on Obama Americans are realizing that he just isn’t up to the job. They do not want a president who body surfs his way through a major foreign policy crisis.

I’m continuing to see hopeful signs of life from NATO and Rice:

NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said on Tuesday that the Russians are not now honoring the terms.

“There can be no business as usual with Russia under the present circumstances,” Scheffer said.

The announcement came after foreign ministers from NATO member nations gathered in Belgium for an emergency meeting over the crisis between Russia and Georgia which also involved U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Hopes of resolving the conflict had been boosted when on Tuesday Georgia and Russia exchanged soldiers who had been captured during the fighting, then Russia agreed to a beefed-up monitoring mission for Georgia’s disputed region of South Ossetia.

Russia also began deploying troops from the strategically key Georgian city of Gori, The Associated Press reported.

Rice arrived at NATO headquarters on Tuesday a day after saying that Moscow was playing “a dangerous game” by re-asserting its power across the border.

NATO ministers were expected to discuss what the alliance can do to support Georgia and “deny Russia’s strategic objectives,” Rice said.

NATO’s internal debate, which centers around the level of diplomatic contact with Russia, is relatively modest:

Washington called on Nato nations to consider at least suspending ministerial meetings with Russia, but Britain and others said it would be counter-productive to cut channels of communication with Moscow now.

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, who attended the meeting, is flying to Georgia to voice support to Tbilisi.

Before leaving he told Sky News: “Russia wants to be a respected international player and it can only be so if it lives up to its international commitments.

“I think it’s important that we don’t pursue a policy of trying to isolate Russia. What we need is hard-headed engagement. But we will make sure it’s not business as usual.”

The possibility of Georgian membership in NATO won’t be officially discussed until December:

Membership Action Plan (MAP) status for Georgia and Ukraine is due to be reviewed at a December meeting.

“I don’t expect that we will — and nor have we sought to — accelerate MAP for Georgia,” Rice said.

“We have said that was a matter for December and we will take that up in December.”

So they say:

A Russian general on Monday said troops have begun withdrawing from Georgia despite reports that they are moving deeper into Georgian territory.

The statement by General Anatoly Nogovitsyn comes amid uncertainty about whether Russia is fulfilling President Dmitry Medvedev’s promise to begin the pullout Monday.

Nogovitsyn told a briefing that “today, according to the peace plan, the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers and reinforcements has begun.”

Georgia, however, sees reportedly sees no signs that a Russian pullout is occurring:

“The situation still remains unchanged. We see no signs of a pullout,” the Secretary of Georgia’s National Security Council, Alexander Lomaia, said.

“Entry to the city of Gori is practically impossible,” he added, referring to checkpoints on the road to Gori which lies 60km outside Tbilisi.

He added that there were still “dozens” of Russian checkpoints on the country’s main road between the village of Igoeti - 40km west of Tbilisi - to the central city of Khashuri.

I certainly do not trust the Russians on this one but it may take a few days to get the troops and equipment pulled back. We’ll know soon enough.

Obama followed through on his pledge to catch some gnaaaaarly waves:

A Secret Service agent asked Honolulu lifeguards about the 2- to 3-foot surf conditions and requested that a lifeguard accompany the Democratic senator into the water, “which we obliged,” said Bryan Cheplic, spokesman for the city’s emergency services department.

Obama caught five waves in 30 minutes, Cheplic said.

Cheplic quoted Obama’s escort — Honolulu lifeguard Peter Erwin — as saying Obama “obviously knew what he was doing. He was experienced. Senator Obama was getting some very nice waves. He was handling himself well.”

AP even captured dramatic video of the junior senator catching some waves. Try not to swoon! So what’s McCain up to? He’s working:

“We have to do what we can to reassure other nations in the region that we will try to assist them in maintaining their independence,” he said. The U.S., he said, should “recognize that this action by Russia against Georgia may not (be) isolated.”

He said that the U.S. and Russia can still work together in areas of mutual interest. “I am interested in good relations between the United States and Russia,” he said. “But in the 21st century, nations don’t invade other nations.”

The Arizona senator called for a review of relations with Russia, including its continued membership in the Group of Eight Leading Nations and its interest in joining the World Trade Organization. He added that NATO should “begin anew” discussions about membership for Georgia and Ukraine, another former Soviet republic that has clashed with Russia.

“After the events of the past six days, no one should wonder why countries on Russia’s periphery so ardently seek the security guarantees alliance membership represents,” he said.

McCain emphasized his long-term relationship with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, noting he has been to Georgia on several occasions. From Georgia, Saakashvili returned the affection.

Again - there’s only one serious candidate in the race.

Others Blogging:

Sister Toldjah
McCain is demonstrating that when it comes to criticial foreign policy issues, his near 30 years in the Senate dealing with foreign issues as well as domestic, along with his long career in the Navy, have served him well in terms of knowing how to handle present-day international conflicts.

Hot Air
The New York Times notices that a completely predictable reversal has taken place between Barack Obama, John McCain, and media coverage. Two weeks ago, the national media followed Obama devotedly as he toured Europe, straining to capture every word on what they considered a historic event. Now, though, the media has awakened to truly historical events in the Caucasus, and McCain has commanded their attention with his leadership — while Obama hides in Hawaii/

Macsmind
You would think with 300 advisers THE ONE would have some words of wisdom from his Mount Olympus. Something to sooth our allies the Georgians who have been getting pummeled by the Russians? The silence is more than telling and quite possibly a view into how Obama would actually handle such events as President. Surfs Up Dude!

The New Republic
McCain has had a prominent and strong presence in the news while Obama has been fairly invisible. Makes me think back to Bill Clinton’s warning that “strong and wrong” will win every time. Obama deserved a vacation but the timing–I assume his team figured the Olympics would drown out any other story–turned out to be a little unfortunate.

The video is dramatic. I can’t believe these men are alive:

Meanwhile a reporter was shot in the eye when his team of Turkish journalists, who were travelling from Gori to the South Ossetian city of Tshinvali, came under repeated fire.

In footage shot by a camera rolling in the back of their vehicle, the team’s driver, Levent Ozturk said: “Friends, I got hit on the head. I am OK now, but in a few minutes…” Guray Ervin, a cameraman, was struck in the shoulder.

The team can be heard reciting final prayers and seen desperately attempting to reverse out of the firing line. As the shooting comes to an end, they wave through the battered sunroof of their truck and shout “Press! Press!”

After the incident Mr Ervin said: “Some 10-15 soldiers sprayed our car with weapons for at least 4 or 5 minutes. I could not move the vehicle since the engine broke down. We shouted at the soldiers that we were journalists. We also took our t-shirts off and waved them out of windows. Some 4 or 5 minutes later, soldiers approached us.”

Neither man’s injury is life-threatening. After being taken to a makeshift hospital in Tshinvali, all the journalists involved have returned to Turkey.

It’s just the kind of dramatic warzone moment U.S. reporters dream of:

Miss Urushadze, who reports for Georgia’s equivalent of the BBC, was talking live to a TV camera about humanitarian aid arriving in Gori yesterday afternoon when the sniper struck.

In the footage, she gasps as the first bullet grazes her left arm, and instinctively jumps sideways as four more whizz past.

In shock, she slumps to the ground as the cameraman rushes to her side.

A still of Tamara Urushadze reporting live on Georgian TV shortly before she was shot by a sniper in Gori

A studio presenter’s voice is heard saying: ‘You can see that something has happened during live coverage. Unfortunately we don’t know what.’

Then Miss Urushadze is on air again, sitting in a van a few yards away and showing the camera her grazed arm.

She tells viewers: ‘I have been hit by a bullet. You can see I am scratched here. Most likely it was a sniper.

‘It has most likely been a light weapon as it’s a minor wound. There is no one to be seen here and I have no idea who shot me.’

She was later taken to hospital.

I’d says she’s pretty hardcore even if it was just a scratch.

John McCain understands what’s at stake in Georgia and he’s laid out a strategy for meeting the challenge head-on:

The world has learned at great cost the price of allowing aggression against free nations to go unchecked. A cease-fire that holds is a vital first step, but only one. With our allies, we now must stand in united purpose to persuade the Russian government to end violence permanently and withdraw its troops from Georgia. International monitors must gain immediate access to war-torn areas in order to avert an even greater humanitarian disaster, and we should ensure that emergency aid lifted by air and sea is delivered.

We should work toward the establishment of an independent, international peacekeeping force in the separatist regions, and stand ready to help our Georgian partners put their country back together. This will entail reviewing anew our relations with both Georgia and Russia. As the NATO secretary general has said, Georgia remains in line for alliance membership, and I hope NATO will move ahead with a membership track for both Georgia and Ukraine.

At the same time, we must make clear to Russia’s leaders that the benefits they enjoy from being part of the civilized world require their respect for the values, stability and peace of that world. The U.S. has cancelled a planned joint military exercise with Russia, an important step in this direction.

The Georgian people have suffered before, and they suffer today. We must help them through this tragedy, and they should know that the thoughts, prayers and support of the American people are with them. This small democracy, far away from our shores, is an inspiration to all those who cherish our deepest ideals. As I told President Saakashvili on the day the cease-fire was declared, today we are all Georgians. We mustn’t forget it.

Contrast this message, and McCain’s immediate knowledgeable response throughout the whole affair, with Obama’s jaw-dropping non-response.

Russia is not going quietly. In fact, they’re not going at all:

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made the statement Thursday simultaneously with the announcement that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was meeting in the Kremlin with the separatist regions’ leaders.

“One can forget about any talk about Georgia’s territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state,” Lavrov told reporters.

The Russians continue to destroy key Georgian facilities under their control:

Scattered explosions were still reported. In Washington, a U.S. official told the Associated Press that the Russian military was apparently destroying airfields and other Georgian miltiary equipment.

Charles Krauthammer believes, correctly in my opinion, that Putin has much more ambitious, and dangerous, goals in mind:

The road to the capital, Tbilisi, is open, but apparently Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has temporarily chosen to seek his objectives through military pressure and Western acquiescence rather than by naked occupation.

His objectives are clear. They go beyond detaching South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia and absorbing them into Russia. They go beyond destroying the Georgian army, leaving the country at Russia’s mercy.

The real objective is the Finlandization of Georgia through the removal of President Mikheil Saakashvili and his replacement by a Russian puppet.

The assistance plans President Bush announced yesterday were positive but bolder diplomatic steps are needed. My hope is that there are also significant, but less overt, initiatives underway to assist Georgia in what looks to be an emerging protracted struggle.

I just received an interesting press release from Project HOPE:

Project HOPE, an international health education and humanitarian assistance organization, today sent more than $400,000 of antibiotics to the people of Georgia through a U.S. Department of State airlift that will arrive in the Georgian capital city of Tbilisi later this week.

Nearly 4,000 bottles of the antibiotic cefprozil, donated by Bristol-Myers Squibb, make up the Project HOPE shipment that will be added to other humanitarian aid supplies that the Department of State is gathering for the airlift.

“Adults and children, whether they are in the midst of the conflict or not, need antibiotics to fight off infections that may develop from wounds or unhealthy living conditions that arise from war,” said Stuart Myers, Senior Vice President of Global Health at Project HOPE. “Fortunately, HOPE and our partner, Bristol-Myers Squibb, were prepared to supply the antibiotics when the Department of State called.”

Project HOPE continues to monitor the situation in Georgia. HOPE officials are in contact with both U.S. and Georgian government officials to identify and address long-term health care needs of the Georgian people.

Project HOPE, working in conjunction with the American Friends of Georgia, currently has a humanitarian assistance shipment of more than $1.4 million of medicines and medical supplies on the ground in Georgia. Unfortunately, the shipment arrived just as the conflict commenced and access to the supplies has been cut off. HOPE and the American Friends of Georgia are exploring ways to reach the shipment and may redirect the supplies to assist in conflict relief efforts.

A C-17 was in the air this morning as President Bush announced the plan:

The C-17 is from the 305th Air Mobility Wing at McGuire Air Force Base, N.J.

“The aircraft will be carrying medical supplies, shelters, bedding — those types of things,” Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said. “That will be the first flight in; there are plans for another flight tomorrow as we continue to assess the wide range of humanitarian assistance options that we might be able to provide both in the immediate and long-term humanitarian capabilities.”

A military assessment team will arrive soon to assess the Georgian government’s humanitarian needs. The 12-man team will act as a liaison among the U.S. Embassy in Georgia, the Georgian government, and U.S. European Command and other U.S. agencies. The team contains experts in a number of civil affairs fields, Pentagon officials said. Many have recent experience in Georgia and can help to determine what capabilities the United States has that the Georgians may need.

“We’re looking at a broader range of assets and capabilities that we might bring to bear on the humanitarian need there,” Whitman said.

The amount and nature of the aid will grow as the assessment team delivers its reports, he said.

Defense Department officials will look at assistance options are available,” Whitman said. This ultimately could include ships delivering humanitarian goods to the nation.

Aside from the humanitarian aspects, which are important, this effort also presents us with a chance to aggressively secure Georgian territory. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili certainly anticipates that effect even if Washington won’t acknowledge the intent:

“You have heard the statement by the U.S. president that the United States is starting a military-humanitarian operation in Georgia,” Saakashvili said in a television address.

“It means that Georgian ports and airports will be taken under the control of the U.S. defence ministry in order to conduct humanitarian and other missions. This is a very important statement for easing tension.”

Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said: “We are not looking to, not do we need to, take control of any air or seaports to conduct this mission.

Good morning. I’ve just met with my national security team to discuss the crisis in Georgia. I’ve spoken with President Saakashvili of Georgia, and President Sarkozy of France this morning. The United States strongly supports France’s efforts, as President of the European Union, to broker an agreement that will end this conflict.

The United States of America stands with the democratically elected government of Georgia. We insist that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia be respected.

Russia has stated that changing the government of Georgia is not its goal. The United States and the world expect Russia to honor that commitment. Russia has also stated that it has halted military operations and agreed to a provisional cease-fire. Unfortunately, we’re receiving reports of Russian actions that are inconsistent with these statements. We’re concerned about reports that Russian units have taken up positions on the east side of the city of Gori, which allows them to block the East-West Highway, divide the country, and threaten the capital of Tbilisi.

We’re concerned about reports that Russian forces have entered and taken positions in the port city of Poti, that Russian armored vehicles are blocking access to that port, and that Russia is blowing up Georgian vessels. We’re concerned about reports that Georgian citizens of all ethnic origins are not being protected. All forces, including Russian forces, have an obligation to protect innocent civilians from attack.

With these concerns in mind, I have directed a series of steps to demonstrate our solidarity with the Georgian people and bring about a peaceful resolution to this conflict. I’m sending Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to France, where she will confer with President Sarkozy. She will then travel to Tbilisi, where she will personally convey America’s unwavering support for Georgia’s democratic government. On this trip she will continue our efforts to rally the free world in the defense of a free Georgia.

I’ve also directed Secretary of Defense Bob Gates to begin a humanitarian mission to the people of Georgia, headed by the United States military. This mission will be vigorous and ongoing. A U.S. C-17 aircraft with humanitarian supplies is on its way. And in the days ahead we will use U.S. aircraft, as well as naval forces, to deliver humanitarian and medical supplies.

We expect Russia to honor its commitment to let in all forms of humanitarian assistance. We expect Russia to ensure that all lines of communication and transport, including seaports, airports, roads, and airspace, remain open for the delivery of humanitarian assistance and for civilian transit. We expect Russia to meet its commitment to cease all military activities in Georgia. And we expect all Russian forces that entered Georgia in recent days to withdraw from that country.

As I have made clear, Russia’s ongoing action raise serious questions about its intentions in Georgia and the region. In recent years, Russia has sought to integrate into the diplomatic, political, economic, and security structures of the 21st century. The United States has supported those efforts. Now Russia is putting its aspirations at risk by taking actions in Georgia that are inconsistent with the principles of those institutions. To begin to repair the damage to its relations with the United States, Europe, and other nations, and to begin restoring its place in the world, Russia must keep its word and act to end this crisis.

Thank you.

Source: The White House